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stock market analysis: Q2 earnings, macro data among key factors that will steer market this week


NEW DELHI: Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty were volatile during the initial few days of last week as global worries over US debt default along with rising bond yield and crude oil price weighed investor sentiments. However, as the concerns dissipated, both regained their momentum.

The expectation of good quarterly numbers and the dovish policy measures by RBI in their bi-monthly policy announcement helped in adding investor confidence.

“In the coming week, domestic investors will shift their focus to Q2 corporate earnings. The IT sector will be in key focus as they are scheduled to release earnings in the coming days. The domestic market also awaits the release of September inflation data which is expected to settle below 5 per cent,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at

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“Globally, investors have the release of US jobs data on their radar to determine the course of the global markets in the coming week.”

Key factors that may guide markets this week:

Q2 earnings: This week will see first crop of companies coming out with their quarterly numbers, Delta Corps, HFCL, Infosys, Mindtree, Wipro, Cyient, HCL Tech, Indiabulls Real Estate, HDFC Bank and Avenue Supermarts are among major firms that are scheduled to publish their numbers. These counters may see volatile moves during the week.

Macro data: India will announce a number of macro data that will show how much the economy has recovered. Industrial Production for August, CPI for September and WPI for September are some of those. Morgan Stanley expects IIP stable at 11.5 per cent, CPI at 4.3 per cent and WPI at 11.2 per cent.

Vaccination: The rapid pace of vaccination has increased hopes of businesses. India has administered over 93 crore vaccine doses, giving at least one dose to nearly half of the population. This has given wings to traders who believe India might avoid a third wave of coronavirus pandemic.

IPO: Ahead of its listing scheduled next week, Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC is commanding a miniscule premium in the grey market. This suggests the issue may see flat or negative listing gains on Monday.

Bond yields: India 10-year bond yield has spiked to 18-month high of 6.32 per cent. This reflects that traders are not buying the low inflation projection that the central bank has provided. On Friday, the RBI maintained the status quo and said it will keep ample liquidity in the market. But, if yields rise further, this may not be a good sign for equity markets.

Nifty outlook:

After the heightened volatility seen last week, Nifty50 closed positive for the week gone by. “The index managed to bounce from the support around the 17,450 level after forming a Doji candle. Although Nifty50 is still overbought, it has not seen any significant correction. Globally too, major indices have started finding support after a mild price and time correction.” said analysts at Samco Research.



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